The Fall of the Regime Is Inevitable: Brace for Round Two!


Iran’s authoritarian system is faltering for the same structural reasons that have undone many regimes before it: a young and increasingly educated population has detached from the state’s ideological narrative, the economy is paralyzed by corruption and oil dependency, and technology has made information control far more difficult. Generational civic resistance, a large and active diaspora, and widespread civil disobedience continue to erode both the government’s legitimacy and its capacity to manage crises. While no precise timeline can be predicted, the underlying dynamics point toward inevitable change: as the system weakens, space opens for a more stable, freer, and more prosperous Iran. Once political reform finally begins, the country will have clear economic and strategic incentives to integrate more deeply with the international community — and as a result, Iran’s geopolitical orientation will naturally shift toward Western institutions, partnerships, and even alliance.

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