Geopolitics Sauna

  Spain allowed European security to be breached in a spectacular way. The same could happen here in Finland, in Estonia, in Latvia, in Lithuania, in Poland, or in Greece. We have to be super vigilant and crack down on human smugglers making millions from this phenomenon. Spain will face European scrutiny on Tuesday in Brussels. I remain skeptical that anything substantial will come out of it on Tuesday, but I would be pleasantly surprised to be proven wrong. If this happened so easily now and without anybody taking meaningful action, it certainly can happen again at any time. Similar shenanigans are used constantly by Turkey and Russia. This is nothing new. We have to put a stop to this. The political pressure from Europeans to do something is huge, so politicians will at least posture. Let us watch and see. This is an existential issue for European civilization. Helsinki, Finland 2.8.2026 Anno Domini

We held a conversation on Georgia, and you can listen to the recording here .  Since 2024, the situation in Georgia has gradually escalated, and Western countries have not paid enough attention to this country, where people genuinely want to be part of Europe and the Euro-Atlantic community of nations. I sincerely thank my friends Terje and Marika for participating. 🙂

At this moment, the situation is widely seen as a critical window . If the Iranian public wants real change, it requires citizens to take an active role and put their own “skin in the game” through widespread civic pressure and participation. In the best of cases likely outcome is civil war, even after regime collapses. So we should brace ourselves for long and dirty process to Make Iran Great Again. Recent intelligence assessments from the United States Intelligence Community indicate that Iran’s ruling system is not currently in danger of collapsing, despite military pressure and regional tensions. Analysts say the government in Tehran continues to maintain control over the country’s institutions and security forces. Anything can always happen in these turning points of history but still... Hope regime already collapsed yesterday. However, the reports emphasize an important point: external pressure alone is unlikely to bring down the regime. While international actions may weaken the...

  The reality is that the Americans and Israelis will not bomb Iran indefinitely. Ultimately, developments must arise from within the country itself. The struggle has to move to the streets. Civil war may well become one possible path, but almost any alternative would be preferable to the nightmare that has endured for half a century. The various opposition forces must begin to act inside the country, because military operations from outside could cease at any moment. When those operations subside, the regime will inevitably attempt to consolidate its power and restore the status quo, returning everything to where it began. If decisive action is not taken now, this historic opportunity will once again be lost. Opposition groups must arm and organize themselves, and peaceful demonstrators may have to transform into urban guerrillas, developing military organization and discipline. Revolution is not rocket science; it requires conviction and belief. Now we will see whether those qual...

The collective evidence from the theaters of Iran, Ukraine, and Israel confirms that light is indeed the best disinfectant. Transparency has served to expose the escalation managers whose over-caution has led to the subversion of the European security order and the terrible cost of human lives in Ukraine. It has unmasked the apologists of the Iran Experts Initiative who infiltrated the highest levels of Western policy making to advance the interests of a theocratic dictatorship that openly boasts of its multi-front war against the West. And it has revealed the wolves in sheep's clothing who use the language of human rights and democratic progress to apologize for regimes that commit genocide and sponsor global terror. The light of moments like the October 7 attack and the 2025 Twelve-Day War exposes the reality that deterrence is not something that can be managed indefinitely through strategic ambiguity and restraint. True deterrence requires moral clarity and the willingness to...

Iran’s authoritarian system is faltering for the same structural reasons that have undone many regimes before it: a young and increasingly educated population has detached from the state’s ideological narrative, the economy is paralyzed by corruption and oil dependency, and technology has made information control far more difficult. Generational civic resistance, a large and active diaspora, and widespread civil disobedience continue to erode both the government’s legitimacy and its capacity to manage crises. While no precise timeline can be predicted, the underlying dynamics point toward inevitable change: as the system weakens, space opens for a more stable, freer, and more prosperous Iran. Once political reform finally begins, the country will have clear economic and strategic incentives to integrate more deeply with the international community — and as a result, Iran’s geopolitical orientation will naturally shift toward Western institutions, partnerships, and even alliance.

I am genuinely struck by the current turn of events; it appears regime change has returned to the forefront of American foreign policy. These developments evoke powerful flashbacks to 2003, when I worked closely with American military colleagues during the invasion of Iraq. Delta Boys, ie. 1st SFOD-D / CAG, back in the day in Panama on top of M113, 1989 History shows that the United States has often successfully executed such operations within its own hemisphere—Grenada and Panama come to mind. However, projecting that same power elsewhere has proven far more arduous, with Iraq and Afghanistan remaining as stark reminders of the complexities involved. Yet, knowing what I do about the U.S. Special Forces, the intelligence community, and the sheer scale of the American military-industrial complex, the current operation is nothing short of a masterclass . With reports of only a single wounded service member while Maduro’s loyalists face a grim fate, the precision is startling. The Trump a...

Six months ago I wrote this . At that time the prediction was that regime fall was at 30%. Now stakes are significantly higher. Events in Persia have reached a tipping point. Legacy media and our political class have failed as per usual. The media does not know how to cover issues and if they do they bring mostly wrong commentators. They are to be sidelined and this revolution is best followed and supported virtually in X.  Idiotic commentators and politicians are cautioning for taking part in that revolution, as voicing unequivocal support to Persians would somehow be "risky". Supporting people to overthrow the theocracy mafia is the lowest of all low hanging fruits as of now. The regime is at its weakest since 1979! Trump's escalatory rhetoric is exactly the language these islamistic bastards listen to. Western appeasers are just fodder for islamists for their breakfast.  Let us remind ourselves that things really cannot get any worse in Iran and anything is better than...

Conflict in Syria has escalated in Mid July 2025. Israel has stepped in to protect the Druze. According to i24 IDF has mobilized two divisions to deal with the situation. Ambassador Reda Mansour explains the situation precisely and honestly, to which there is nothing to add or subtract. See my previous analysis on the subject here .

Ms. Mikiashvili is representative of DroaParty, University Lecturer & Proud Nafo Fella. In this episode we receive updates of all things Georgia and hear why the free world has to be seized in Georgian freedom objectives and Georgians Euro-Atlantic aspirations. Stay tuned for all things Georgia!

  Prince of Persia - the original one - was a great game. Those who might remember it might have played it in the late 80’s or early 90’s. Playing it was comparable to today’s binge watching or addictive social media scrolling. There is a different kind of geopolitical game going on right now in Iran. This has been launched by Israel to destroy the nuclear programme of evil theocrats ruling Iran brutally for almost five decades. The likelihood of regime change is around 30% based on those in the know as per June 17th 2025. Maybe it will be better to withhold the source for the time being, but suffice to say the source is a super-reliable and knowledgeable person from the region. The current conflict between Israel and Iran is historic and can already be seen as a major turning point in Middle East politics, and in world geopolitics. Operation Rising Lion has clearly created optimal circumstances for Iranians to topple the theocrats from power. This of course is easier said than don...

Sudan’s civil war is a regional proxy fight and the West is on the sidelines. Sudan is unraveling. A brutal civil war has plunged the country into an abyss. But this isn’t just an internal power struggle. Regional players are fanning the flames. Egypt has thrown its weight behind the SAF. The United Arab Emirates is widely believed to be supporting the RSF. Saudi Arabia, while officially calling for peace, has its own interests in how this ends. Sudan has become a proxy battleground in a broader contest for influence across the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. The reality is that influencing the conflict would require putting pressure on U.S. partners like Egypt, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia—an uncomfortable proposition, particularly at a time when relationships with those governments are already strained or strategically sensitive. And then there’s the bigger question: what are the West’s actual interests in Sudan? Beyond humanitarian concern and human rights rhetoric, there’s little clea...

The Master and Margarita by Soviet writer Mikhail Bulkakov has been translated into Finnish as Satan is Coming to Moscow. I have always appreciated translators, because translating emotions, expressions, and cultural phenomena often requires the gifts of a magician.  I wish to  thank the Finnish translator Ulla-Liisa Heino for her oracular foresight. She predicted what I myself began to suspect around 2014 when Crimea was annexed and what I came to know to be true around the end of February 2022.  Satan is not coming to Moscow. Instead the Devil has been lurking there for years already!  I apologize for the melodramatic tone of my writing! The topic is difficult and evokes strong emotions: anger, hate, disappointment and absolute bewilderment. Maybe violence is the natural state of being and peacetime is just a glitch in the Matrix. Picture: Depiction of Ukrainian bicycler from Bucha shot by retreating Russian soldiers in March 2022. Mass killings of civilians and wa...

The conflict in Eastern DRC has its roots in the country's colonial past, the 1994 Rwandan Genocide, and the subsequent influx of refugees and armed groups. The region's rich natural resources, including minerals like coltan, gold, and diamonds, have also contributed to the ongoing violence. As of May 2025, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda are engaged in ongoing peace negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict in Eastern Congo, particularly concerning the M23 rebel group. These talks are being facilitated by the United States and Qatar, with the goal of reaching a formal agreement by mid-June. Talks reflect new geopolitical realities, where sovereignty is violated with impunity by Rwanda, whilst USA is turning inwards and looking for new proxies for its immigration policy to deport people out. How can trust be built between Rwanda and Congo when there is no trust at all between the administrations of Presidents Kagame and Tshisekedi? "Rwanda's securi...

Election of the new Pope has electrified the world’s attention, but what can we learn from this ancient process in this age of election campaigning, 24 hour news cycle, information overload and disinformation campaigning by malicious actors? Catholic Church as Flag Bearer of  Western Civilization and Its Values After the passing of Pope Francis curious and ancient tradition of the Conclave kicks off to select a new Pope. The Catholic Church h as 252 cardinals and not all will be voting, or even participating in the Conclave. As of April 30 the seventh general congregation included 181 cardinals, with 124 of the 133 voting cardinal s present. Francis has personally appointed about 80% of the cardinals who will elect the next pope. Some of them are, however, very conservative or otherwise oppose Francis' reform agenda despite this. Efforts by powerful conservative Catholic groupings were reportedly well underway days before the Conclave commenced. At the start of the procedure al...