Geopolitics Sauna

The collective evidence from the theaters of Iran, Ukraine, and Israel confirms that light is indeed the best disinfectant. Transparency has served to expose the escalation managers whose over-caution has led to the subversion of the European security order and the terrible cost of human lives in Ukraine. It has unmasked the apologists of the Iran Experts Initiative who infiltrated the highest levels of Western policy making to advance the interests of a theocratic dictatorship that openly boasts of its multi-front war against the West. And it has revealed the wolves in sheep's clothing who use the language of human rights and democratic progress to apologize for regimes that commit genocide and sponsor global terror. The light of moments like the October 7 attack and the 2025 Twelve-Day War exposes the reality that deterrence is not something that can be managed indefinitely through strategic ambiguity and restraint. True deterrence requires moral clarity and the willingness to...

Iran’s authoritarian system is faltering for the same structural reasons that have undone many regimes before it: a young and increasingly educated population has detached from the state’s ideological narrative, the economy is paralyzed by corruption and oil dependency, and technology has made information control far more difficult. Generational civic resistance, a large and active diaspora, and widespread civil disobedience continue to erode both the government’s legitimacy and its capacity to manage crises. While no precise timeline can be predicted, the underlying dynamics point toward inevitable change: as the system weakens, space opens for a more stable, freer, and more prosperous Iran. Once political reform finally begins, the country will have clear economic and strategic incentives to integrate more deeply with the international community — and as a result, Iran’s geopolitical orientation will naturally shift toward Western institutions, partnerships, and even alliance.

I am genuinely struck by the current turn of events; it appears regime change has returned to the forefront of American foreign policy. These developments evoke powerful flashbacks to 2003, when I worked closely with American military colleagues during the invasion of Iraq. Delta Boys, ie. 1st SFOD-D / CAG, back in the day in Panama on top of M113, 1989 History shows that the United States has often successfully executed such operations within its own hemisphere—Grenada and Panama come to mind. However, projecting that same power elsewhere has proven far more arduous, with Iraq and Afghanistan remaining as stark reminders of the complexities involved. Yet, knowing what I do about the U.S. Special Forces, the intelligence community, and the sheer scale of the American military-industrial complex, the current operation is nothing short of a masterclass . With reports of only a single wounded service member while Maduro’s loyalists face a grim fate, the precision is startling. The Trump a...

Six months ago I wrote this . At that time the prediction was that regime fall was at 30%. Now stakes are significantly higher. Events in Persia have reached a tipping point. Legacy media and our political class have failed as per usual. The media does not know how to cover issues and if they do they bring mostly wrong commentators. They are to be sidelined and this revolution is best followed and supported virtually in X.  Idiotic commentators and politicians are cautioning for taking part in that revolution, as voicing unequivocal support to Persians would somehow be "risky". Supporting people to overthrow the theocracy mafia is the lowest of all low hanging fruits as of now. The regime is at its weakest since 1979! Trump's escalatory rhetoric is exactly the language these islamistic bastards listen to. Western appeasers are just fodder for islamists for their breakfast.  Let us remind ourselves that things really cannot get any worse in Iran and anything is better than...

Conflict in Syria has escalated in Mid July 2025. Israel has stepped in to protect the Druze. According to i24 IDF has mobilized two divisions to deal with the situation. Ambassador Reda Mansour explains the situation precisely and honestly, to which there is nothing to add or subtract. See my previous analysis on the subject here .

"... Jay Cal, a decorated British SAS operator...  ...being accused of war crimes and charged with murder during a combat deployment... ... Jay opens up about the devastating betrayal from his own government, the revocation of a commendation tied to the mission in question..."  If it's not ok it's UK? Some arrogant senior "Ruperts" playing politics and doing "damage control" throwing subordinates and their innocent families under the bus. The remnants of the British class system prevent similar outrage that would take place in the Fox saturated world in America. There is an ongoing scandal in the UK that has been apparently brewing for some time already. Explosive details are trickling out from this secretive world. Why lower ranks are treated as expendable. This story deserves to be shared. UK Navy chief, veteran's minister & Mr Cal's MP need to look at the mirror among other people.

Ms. Mikiashvili is representative of DroaParty, University Lecturer & Proud Nafo Fella. In this episode we receive updates of all things Georgia and hear why the free world has to be seized in Georgian freedom objectives and Georgians Euro-Atlantic aspirations. Stay tuned for all things Georgia!

  Prince of Persia - the original one - was a great game. Those who might remember it might have played it in the late 80’s or early 90’s. Playing it was comparable to today’s binge watching or addictive social media scrolling. There is a different kind of geopolitical game going on right now in Iran. This has been launched by Israel to destroy the nuclear programme of evil theocrats ruling Iran brutally for almost five decades. The likelihood of regime change is around 30% based on those in the know as per June 17th 2025. Maybe it will be better to withhold the source for the time being, but suffice to say the source is a super-reliable and knowledgeable person from the region. The current conflict between Israel and Iran is historic and can already be seen as a major turning point in Middle East politics, and in world geopolitics. Operation Rising Lion has clearly created optimal circumstances for Iranians to topple the theocrats from power. This of course is easier said than don...

Sudan’s civil war is a regional proxy fight and the West is on the sidelines. Sudan is unraveling. A brutal civil war has plunged the country into an abyss. But this isn’t just an internal power struggle. Regional players are fanning the flames. Egypt has thrown its weight behind the SAF. The United Arab Emirates is widely believed to be supporting the RSF. Saudi Arabia, while officially calling for peace, has its own interests in how this ends. Sudan has become a proxy battleground in a broader contest for influence across the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. The reality is that influencing the conflict would require putting pressure on U.S. partners like Egypt, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia—an uncomfortable proposition, particularly at a time when relationships with those governments are already strained or strategically sensitive. And then there’s the bigger question: what are the West’s actual interests in Sudan? Beyond humanitarian concern and human rights rhetoric, there’s little clea...

The Master and Margarita by Soviet writer Mikhail Bulkakov has been translated into Finnish as Satan is Coming to Moscow. I have always appreciated translators, because translating emotions, expressions, and cultural phenomena often requires the gifts of a magician.  I wish to  thank the Finnish translator Ulla-Liisa Heino for her oracular foresight. She predicted what I myself began to suspect around 2014 when Crimea was annexed and what I came to know to be true around the end of February 2022.  Satan is not coming to Moscow. Instead the Devil has been lurking there for years already!  I apologize for the melodramatic tone of my writing! The topic is difficult and evokes strong emotions: anger, hate, disappointment and absolute bewilderment. Maybe violence is the natural state of being and peacetime is just a glitch in the Matrix. Picture: Depiction of Ukrainian bicycler from Bucha shot by retreating Russian soldiers in March 2022. Mass killings of civilians and wa...

The conflict in Eastern DRC has its roots in the country's colonial past, the 1994 Rwandan Genocide, and the subsequent influx of refugees and armed groups. The region's rich natural resources, including minerals like coltan, gold, and diamonds, have also contributed to the ongoing violence. As of May 2025, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda are engaged in ongoing peace negotiations aimed at resolving the conflict in Eastern Congo, particularly concerning the M23 rebel group. These talks are being facilitated by the United States and Qatar, with the goal of reaching a formal agreement by mid-June. Talks reflect new geopolitical realities, where sovereignty is violated with impunity by Rwanda, whilst USA is turning inwards and looking for new proxies for its immigration policy to deport people out. How can trust be built between Rwanda and Congo when there is no trust at all between the administrations of Presidents Kagame and Tshisekedi? "Rwanda's securi...

Election of the new Pope has electrified the world’s attention, but what can we learn from this ancient process in this age of election campaigning, 24 hour news cycle, information overload and disinformation campaigning by malicious actors? Catholic Church as Flag Bearer of  Western Civilization and Its Values After the passing of Pope Francis curious and ancient tradition of the Conclave kicks off to select a new Pope. The Catholic Church h as 252 cardinals and not all will be voting, or even participating in the Conclave. As of April 30 the seventh general congregation included 181 cardinals, with 124 of the 133 voting cardinal s present. Francis has personally appointed about 80% of the cardinals who will elect the next pope. Some of them are, however, very conservative or otherwise oppose Francis' reform agenda despite this. Efforts by powerful conservative Catholic groupings were reportedly well underway days before the Conclave commenced. At the start of the procedure al...

Nigerians living abroad have set up a grouping called BRGIE (Biafra Republic Government in Exile), which is “led” by Simon Ekpa. It has low credibility due to its lack of international and domestic recognition, association with violence, and Ekpa’s and his supporters' legal troubles in Finland.  In the case of Ekpa, deportation is out of the question because he is a Finnish citizen.  Its claims of legitimacy, such as referendum votes or international loans, lack verification and are contradicted by credible sources. While it retains some diaspora support, BRGIE is widely seen as a fringe, destabilizing force rather than a legitimate movement, with its actions causing more harm than progress for the separatist cause. Especially leading separatist organization on the ground called IPOB (Indigenous People of Biafra) has declared BRGIE illegitimate. An outside observer often seeks solutions to seemingly difficult conflicts around the world. This analysis is not written from that p...

The West must demand the regime to stop violence against minorities. So far the evidence points to the opposite being true: genocidal incitement is going on whilst a beautiful face is presented to gullible Western decision makers. Fall of Assad breeds this wishful thinking in the West needlessly and behind the smiles is also hope, that migrant flows from the Middle East would cease, so that the extreme right would not grow stronger and defeat the centrist decision makers in Europe. Situation in Syria is Volatile and  Atrocities are Taking Place In December last year the Assad regime finally collapsed and a grouping called HTS ( “Organization for the Liberation of the Levant” or Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), supported by Turkey’s proxies, came to power. Jihadists of HTS are allowed to use deception against infidels as per their interpretation of islam. Showing a beautiful face towards the West is part of this strategy when they try to get rid of Assad-era sanctions.  Minorities ...