Geopolitics Sauna

We held a conversation on Georgia, and you can listen to the recording here .  Since 2024, the situation in Georgia has gradually escalated, and Western countries have not paid enough attention to this country, where people genuinely want to be part of Europe and the Euro-Atlantic community of nations. I sincerely thank my friends Terje and Marika for participating. 🙂

Oh my goodness! Is that Kujala's Jaakko? And all the way from America! The land of hope and glory! I suppose Jaakko and money have finally found each other out there in the world. Well, yeah... more than just callouses on my hands remained. But to tell the truth... everything's gone.  Even my father's inheritance. Everything that glitters is duplicates, and that one in the yard is a loaner. The main thing is that you've kept your honesty. Welcome back. Oululainen. Honest Finnish bread.

At this moment, the situation is widely seen as a critical window . If the Iranian public wants real change, it requires citizens to take an active role and put their own “skin in the game” through widespread civic pressure and participation. In the best of cases likely outcome is civil war, even after regime collapses. So we should brace ourselves for long and dirty process to Make Iran Great Again. Recent intelligence assessments from the United States Intelligence Community indicate that Iran’s ruling system is not currently in danger of collapsing, despite military pressure and regional tensions. Analysts say the government in Tehran continues to maintain control over the country’s institutions and security forces. Anything can always happen in these turning points of history but still... Hope regime already collapsed yesterday. However, the reports emphasize an important point: external pressure alone is unlikely to bring down the regime. While international actions may weaken the...

Reference Video: Could Iran’s Regime Collapse? Kaveh Shahrooz on the Future of Iran As the Islamic Republic faces unprecedented external pressure and internal rot, the question of "what comes next" has moved from a theoretical debate to an urgent political necessity. However, a significant rift has emerged within the Iranian diaspora—one that threatens to dismantle a potential coalition before the regime even falls. At the center of this storm are the Pahlavists (monarchists), whose aggressive demands for allegiance are increasingly viewed as a barrier to a unified democratic front. The "Purge Before the Revolution" A common critique of the monarchist faction, echoed by human rights activist Kaveh Shahrooz, is their tendency to target like-minded opposition figures rather than focusing solely on the regime. Shahrooz notes that during the 2022 "Woman, Life, Freedom" movement, a promising coalition was disrupted when the Pahlavi team seemingly "trippe...

  The reality is that the Americans and Israelis will not bomb Iran indefinitely. Ultimately, developments must arise from within the country itself. The struggle has to move to the streets. Civil war may well become one possible path, but almost any alternative would be preferable to the nightmare that has endured for half a century. The various opposition forces must begin to act inside the country, because military operations from outside could cease at any moment. When those operations subside, the regime will inevitably attempt to consolidate its power and restore the status quo, returning everything to where it began. If decisive action is not taken now, this historic opportunity will once again be lost. Opposition groups must arm and organize themselves, and peaceful demonstrators may have to transform into urban guerrillas, developing military organization and discipline. Revolution is not rocket science; it requires conviction and belief. Now we will see whether those qual...