Geopolitics Sauna

The collective evidence from the theaters of Iran, Ukraine, and Israel confirms that light is indeed the best disinfectant. Transparency has served to expose the escalation managers whose over-caution has led to the subversion of the European security order and the terrible cost of human lives in Ukraine. It has unmasked the apologists of the Iran Experts Initiative who infiltrated the highest levels of Western policy making to advance the interests of a theocratic dictatorship that openly boasts of its multi-front war against the West. And it has revealed the wolves in sheep's clothing who use the language of human rights and democratic progress to apologize for regimes that commit genocide and sponsor global terror. The light of moments like the October 7 attack and the 2025 Twelve-Day War exposes the reality that deterrence is not something that can be managed indefinitely through strategic ambiguity and restraint. True deterrence requires moral clarity and the willingness to...

Iran’s authoritarian system is faltering for the same structural reasons that have undone many regimes before it: a young and increasingly educated population has detached from the state’s ideological narrative, the economy is paralyzed by corruption and oil dependency, and technology has made information control far more difficult. Generational civic resistance, a large and active diaspora, and widespread civil disobedience continue to erode both the government’s legitimacy and its capacity to manage crises. While no precise timeline can be predicted, the underlying dynamics point toward inevitable change: as the system weakens, space opens for a more stable, freer, and more prosperous Iran. Once political reform finally begins, the country will have clear economic and strategic incentives to integrate more deeply with the international community — and as a result, Iran’s geopolitical orientation will naturally shift toward Western institutions, partnerships, and even alliance.

I am genuinely struck by the current turn of events; it appears regime change has returned to the forefront of American foreign policy. These developments evoke powerful flashbacks to 2003, when I worked closely with American military colleagues during the invasion of Iraq. Delta Boys, ie. 1st SFOD-D / CAG, back in the day in Panama on top of M113, 1989 History shows that the United States has often successfully executed such operations within its own hemisphere—Grenada and Panama come to mind. However, projecting that same power elsewhere has proven far more arduous, with Iraq and Afghanistan remaining as stark reminders of the complexities involved. Yet, knowing what I do about the U.S. Special Forces, the intelligence community, and the sheer scale of the American military-industrial complex, the current operation is nothing short of a masterclass . With reports of only a single wounded service member while Maduro’s loyalists face a grim fate, the precision is startling. The Trump a...

Six months ago I wrote this . At that time the prediction was that regime fall was at 30%. Now stakes are significantly higher. Events in Persia have reached a tipping point. Legacy media and our political class have failed as per usual. The media does not know how to cover issues and if they do they bring mostly wrong commentators. They are to be sidelined and this revolution is best followed and supported virtually in X.  Idiotic commentators and politicians are cautioning for taking part in that revolution, as voicing unequivocal support to Persians would somehow be "risky". Supporting people to overthrow the theocracy mafia is the lowest of all low hanging fruits as of now. The regime is at its weakest since 1979! Trump's escalatory rhetoric is exactly the language these islamistic bastards listen to. Western appeasers are just fodder for islamists for their breakfast.  Let us remind ourselves that things really cannot get any worse in Iran and anything is better than...