Rad Sea Graveyard of Empires
The Rise of the Houthis
The rise of the Houthis in the midst of Yemen's chaos is directly comparable to how Hezbollah and Iraqi Shia militias rose to power. At present, the Saudis are engaged in a high-stakes gamble in Yemen that carries immense global significance. The Houthis have launched attacks against the Saudis, prompting the mobilization of a coalition in response. Saudi success heavily depends on leveraging help from a wide array of allies and potential allies united by a common enemy, including Israel, Pakistan, Turkey, the USA, the Emirates, and Eritrea, alongside European nations and others capable of providing military-technical expertise and technology, as well as Ukraine, whose current expertise is considered world-class.
Ideology and Leadership
Islamization sits at the core of the Houthi rise, and the October 7, 2023, attack by Gazans against Jews enabled the Houthis to mobilize the population and recruit a vast number of new supporters. Against an already backward intellectual climate, they have easily introduced culture- and religion-based brainwashing programs to bring the backward population under the movement's umbrella. In a sense, the Houthis represent a new sect within Islam, operating as mysteriously as the Muslim Brotherhood as a form of jihadism characterized by fighting and self-sacrifice for an ideology whose global goal—as unbelievable as it sounds—is the so-called liberation of Palestine, with the objective of uniting various jihadist forces within the Muslim world. Spiritual leader Abdel-Malik has spent decades hiding in rugged mountain terrain and has reportedly only been seen meeting outsiders around 2018, demonstrating that he possesses an effective intelligence apparatus or that much remains undisclosed to the public, while Abdel-Malik issues weekly broadcasts directing his followers on where to act.
Geopolitics of Bab al-Mandeb
Yemen is the Persian Gulf's Afghanistan—a graveyard of empires located at a major crossroads of global trade. For the Saudis, Yemen has been a significant headache that they have proven unable, and arguably unwilling, to resolve for years, while differing views between the Saudis and the Emirates have done nothing to ease the situation, given that the Emirates have invested billions in their Yemeni supporters for the anti-Houthi fight. On a Monday, a Yemeni government spokesperson announced a counter-offensive against the Houthis, with the Saudis and allies supporting it through various means, following Houthi seizures of strategic islands in the Bab al-Mandeb strait through which massive global trade flows. The Houthis have previously used this tactic as leverage, turning internal political violence into a geoplitically significant matter for the region and the entire world because of the strategic importance of Bab al-Mandeb. Furthermore, the Houthis have learned an essential lesson: they do not need to completely close Bab al-Mandeb to benefit from it, as the mere threat suffices.
Global Disruptions and Foreign Interests
A movement capable of disrupting world shipping does not need a full closure to gain political advantage; it is enough to force governments, armies, shipping companies, and markets to factor in costs and risks, turning geography into power and a local war into an international problem. It now appears that a large portion of the Houthi-occupied areas has been quickly recaptured, and the key question is how much territory the counter-offensive intends to take back from the Houthis, with recovering areas vital to global shipping being especially important. Iran is the Houthis' most important regional ally, while China is not strictly an ally but holds its own interests, maintaining contact with Houthi representatives alongside the Yemeni government, Saudis, Iran, and other actors to guard its own interests in this and other strategic areas. There are indications that Chinese companies may have supplied the Houthis with strategic technology, such as drones and weapon system guidance components, prompting the USA to impose sanctions against these Chinese actors and their Yemeni partners. Regarding Russia, the situation in the Red Sea creates operational opportunities without requiring Moscow to declare an alliance with the Houthi movement, and though there are some indications of growing military cooperation between the Houthis and the Russians, this cannot be further commented on at present.
US Policy and Regional Jihadism
The USA currently appears unwilling to fight the Houthis prior to the midterms, though it clearly supports the Saudi-led anti-Houthi coalition. The Houthis have promised not to attack the USA, but such promises from Islamist terrorists carry zero weight, especially given Houthi signals that they will join the anti-US front if the USA continues its war against Iran. The Houthis currently maintain an extremely strong domestic political agenda in Yemen thanks to their powerful apparatus of violence and their success in mobilizing many more Islamists as supporters following the October 7, 2023, attacks. The Houthis are a significant puzzle piece in global jihadism, which is ultimately directed against the West. Over recent years, America and Saudi Arabia have experienced many disagreements over how to handle Yemen, while European actors previously spearheaded demands to wind down anti-Houthi operations, offering further grounds to criticize Europe for acting against its own interests. The war in Yemen has caused and will continue to cause a humanitarian crisis that is heavily publicized, typically pushing decision-makers into superficial and hasty foreign policy choices.
The Impact of October 7 and Western Reactions
Moreover, when the terror attack against Israel began in Gaza on October 7, 2023, the Yemeni conflict became linked to those Gaza events, allowing the Houthis to pursue their agenda regardless of what happens in Gaza or elsewhere, while taking full advantage of the opportunity to mobilize new jihadists by leveraging propaganda that blames Israel and the Jews for the entire war, proving that truth is always the first casualty of war. Consequently, one can ready oneself to cover their ears and wait for the first idiotic reactions from the West calling for a ceasefire and the initiation of negotiations with terrorists. Europe's role in this conflict remains marginal due to its own flawed and self-harming behavior.
Saudi Missteps and Future Outlook
Saudi Arabia arguably suffers the most from Houthi aggression based on public information, and past Saudi operations did not proceed as desired. Foreign policy management appears inept due to attempts to normalize relations with the Houthis and arch-enemy Iran, especially since the Houthis walked out of mutually agreed arrangements after October 7, 2023, and pursued their own independent path regardless of other Yemeni stakeholders. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia previously engineered the withdrawal of the Emirates and its allies, which could have otherwise proven useful against the Houthis now. The Saudis now appear to be mobilizing men from allied countries like Syria and Pakistan, leveraging the legacy of the Syrian civil war where President al-Sharaa faces no shortage of diverse jihadists who can be dispatched to sacrifice themselves for a "noble cause". Some form of peace mediation directed toward the Houthis is underway, but the core reality remains that the Saudis have much to lose while the Houthis have less. In this and many other conflicts involving the Iranian regime, tensions would subside if regime change could be achieved in Iran, whereas a renewed war between Israel/USA and Iran would undoubtedly see the Houthis return to battle alongside Iran, just like Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies. Ultimately, Yemen—like many other corners of the world—is akin to a cancer patient in urgent need of radiation therapy.
